Preview Mixed / Multi-league

SFM & SFMMO: Preview Friday

Friday, September 18, 2026

It’s Friday again, and that means, another weekend full of European club football ahead.

And this weekend is again packed with some blockbuster match-ups: in the Ligue 1 it is Olympique Marseille vs. Paris Saint-Germain, the Serie A has AS Roma vs Inter Milan, and finally La Liga awaits with the Derbi Madrileño: Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid!

So, let’s dive directly into the SFMMO’s and SFM’s projections — as always: shoutout to the fabulous modelling skills of Alexandre Andorra!

🥅 Preview – Matches

Atlético Madridvs.Real Madrid

Vicente Calderón (yes, it’ll always be!) - Derbi Madrileño. Actually, that should already be enough. No more words needed from here on.

No matter how good or bad a season has been for either team, this match is about prestige. And especially, this early in the season it can be a defining one — making or breaking your spirit!

This season is most likely to be decided once again between Real and Barça, with only a few teams being capable of becoming a stolperstein for either team. Well, Atlético is one such team! Despite a disastrous 3:0 defeat against Bilbao two weeks ago, Atlético has since come back spectacularly with 0:3 win over Real Sociedad and a 4:0 blow out against Osasuna.

And Real ... Los Blancos have already stumbled over the first stolperstein, when they lost to Betis. So after all, the lucky third in the end could be Barça itself.

Yet, probably at least as exciting as the match itself will be the clash of coaches: José Mourinho vs. Diego Simeone. That alone is a blockbuster already!

🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?

The SFMMO is very much calling for a draw: the most likely modal scoreline is a 1:1 (11.8%), while it assigns both teams about a 37% chance of winning!

🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?

Atlético: Jonathan David (25%), Alejandro Baena (19%); Real: Kylian Mbappe (59%), Carlos Espi (24%), Vinicius Junior (17%).

📣 SFM Outlook: Atlético ~ Real
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: Atlético < Real

AS Romavs.Inter Milan

The second Rome-Milan match-up in a row, and it is the match of the week in the Serie A: first-placed Roma facing second-placed Inter. It is also the only two teams that have so far won all of their four matches this season, and the teams who have scored the most goals, each averaging at least 3 goals per game!

Roma has so far also conceded a single goal only. What an impressive start to the season that is for coaching legend Gian Piero Gasperini and his team. This has not been left unnoticed by the SFMMO, which has revised its pre-season title odds accordingly: initially it ranked the Giallorossi 5th with a 7.7% probability of winning the Scudetto. In the meantime, Roma has climbed to 3rd place (16%).

Furthermore, top forward Donyell Malen silenced any doubters that his 5 goals in the first two matches were just a coincidence, when he scored again last week against Turin.

Inter’s matches on the other hand have been a bit more, well, volatile ... : they have already conceded 6 goals this season, which is the most among the Top 8 teams in the Serie A right now. But they have also shown, that they can rely on their world class offense: if Lautaro is out, then it is Esposito or Thuram stepping up

🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?

Despite the two teams standing at 12 points each, the SFMMO has quite a strong opinion: Roma (42%) – Inter (33%), which gets even more pronounced when you look at the 90% credible region: 38%-46% for the Giallorossi and 29%-36.5% for the Nerazzurri.

🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?

Roma: Donyell Malen (54%), Matias Soule (26%); Inter: Lautaro Martinez (29%), Marcus Thuram (23%).

📣 SFM Outlook: Roma > Inter
📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook: Roma < Inter

Olympique Marseillevs.Paris Saint-Germain

Looking at the table, this match would not really make it into a highlight session. Even though we are only in GW4 of Ligue 1, both teams have so far been well below their expectations. Both are sitting at only one win out of 4 games, and especially OM has lost all of the other 3!

PSG, at least, booked their first week just last week when World Cup golden scorer Ferran Torres scored the only goal in their match against Stade Brest. Even though PSG’s previous performances were by no means overly disappointing – when they lost to Monaco for example, PSG was the far better team by any metric – yet, it is fair to say: it is a clash of two teams that are currently struggling to meet their own expectations.