The weekend is over and results are in. Time to revisit the calls that the Soccer Factor Model for Match Outcomes (SFMMO) had made for all the matches across Europe’s Top 5 leagues over weekend!
As the receipts are in, so are also the predictions for the upcoming matches for the coming weekend already now – even though a long international break will make us wait for the next round of club football!
📝 Recap – Matches
Atlético Madridvs.
Real Madrid
Once again a match with a lot of emotions, which were still running hot after the match in the press conference. But there, José Mourinho showed more fire and passion than his team on the pitch: an xG of only 0.30 vs. Atlético’s 2.35, and only 8 shots on target – 10 less than Atlético. At least Real won two-thirds of their duels.
Still, the gap to Barça is now WIDE open, which is also reflected in the SFMMO’s title odds: 13.2% for Real, vs. 83.8% for Barça. That is a widening of 17 percentage points to the pre-GW7 title odds!
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
Atlético (37.5%) – Real (37.1%)
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Atlético < Real
- ⚽ Result
- 2:1
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
Atlético: Jonathan David (25% - 1), Alejandro Baena (19% - 0); Real: Kylian Mbappe (59% - 0), Carlos Espi (24% - 0), Vinicius Junior (17% - 0).
AS Romavs.
Inter Milan
A match with two halves, in which it was once again Inter’s Capitano, Lautaro Martinez, who kept his team alive with two goals, as he already did against Napoli a few weeks ago. Roma’s top scorer Donyell Malen did not find the back of the net this time, despite at least two good occasions in which luck was not really on his side.
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Roma < Inter
- ⚽ Result
- 2:2
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
Roma: Donyell Malen (54% - 0), Matias Soule (26% - 0); Inter: Lautaro Martinez (29% - 2), Marcus Thuram (23% - 0).
Olympique Marseillevs.
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG’s rehabilitation. The Parisien are back to winning and the SFMMO acknowledged that promptly with lifting their title odds again above the 60% mark – despite still sitting 5 points short of current leader Monaco.
🤓 SFMMO: Who was projected to win?
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- OM < PSG
- ⚽ Result
- 1:2
🏃 SFM: Players, most likely to score – and how many goals did they actually score?
OM: Amine Gouiri (45% - 0); PSG: Ferran Torres (32% - 1), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (19% - 0), Ousmane Dembele (16% - 0).
📈 SFMMO – The Receipts
So far this season, the SFMMO has been scored on 248 matches out of which it called 130 results correctly, giving it an overall accuracy of 52.4% – trumping the market odds by 0.8 percentage points. Last weekend, the SFMMO did especially well in the Ligue 1 with an accuracy of 77.8%, calling only 4 out of 10 matches correctly in the Serie A.
🤓 For the geeks: a detailed overview of all our calls on a match-by-match basis can be found on our website: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com/matches/all-leagues/validation
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