Slightly rephrasing and definitely butchering a quote from German coaching legend Sepp Herberger: “The day after the international break is the day ahead of a weekend full of European club football!”
Yes, it was quite a long international break, which is not to say that nothing happened. Quite the contrary! A lot has happened — on and off the pitch: Man City getting caught for having fooled every passionate football fan for years, Cristiano Ronaldo saying adeus to the Portuguese National team, and many nations getting a first taste of their new head coaches ranging from Jürgen Klopp in Germany and Xavi in the Netherlands, via Roberto Mancini in Italy to Zinedine Zidane in France!
A lot to digest, also for the clubs, which might have also lost sight — as we did – of which player returned injured and who did not.
And to be honest, the schedule at the weekend does not look extremely exciting. Yet, there are some nuggets worth watching and writing about — especially what is going to go down at Anfield on Sunday!
So, let’s dive directly into the SFMMO’s and SFM’s projections — as always: shoutout to the fabulous modelling skills of Alexandre Andorra!
🥅 Preview – Matches
Liverpoolvs.
Manchester City
This would already have been a banger without all that has happened during the international break! But the revelation that City has apparently vastly misreported their financial statements over several years, just adds way more fire to the match — especially as the Citizens have to stand up to the passionate LFC fans!
It is still early on in the season, but it is already a match that Liverpool is not allowed to lose if they want to stay competitive in the race for the title. City is currently 6 points ahead at the top of the table and has not left any doubt so far that they are the team to beat this season.
Yet, if there is a perfect moment to attack a team that has not given away a single point this season, then it is definitely after a (long) international break while the team is at the same time dealing with unprecedented turmoil off the pitch!
🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?
The SFMMO is very much calling for a draw: the most likely modal scoreline is a 1:1 (12.6%), while LFC is given a slightly higher win probability (38%) than City (35%).
🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?
No surprises here, the usual suspects! LFC: Alexander Isak (54%), Cody Gakpo (24%); City: Erling Haaland (52%), Antoine Semenyo (18%)
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- LFC ~ City
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- LFC < City
Como 1907vs.
AS Roma
It is the match of the week in the Serie A: the team that was ranked by our SFMMO as the second most likely team to lift the Scudetto in the pre-season title odds, Como, is facing the current Serie A leader, the AS Roma!
At the moment, only 3 points are separating the two teams, but it still reads as the 8th-placed Como hosting the 1st-placed Roma.
After a bumpy start into the season, Como seems to have found their rhythm again and showed impressive performances not only nationally, but also in the Champions League. Roma in contrast is still undefeated this season, and has withstood all that has been thrown at it so far.
Yet, an international break can cause a complete reset ... which a team further down south of Rome is hoping to actually be one ...
🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?
The SFMMO has quite a tendency here! It seems that the home pitch factor is taking over and making the SFMMO lean towards Cesc Fabregas’ team!
Como (44%) – Roma (30%), with the 90% credible interval only ever so slightly overlapping!
🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?
Como: Tassos Douvikas (28%), Assane Diao (27%); Roma: Donyell Malen (47%), Matias Soule (23%).
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Como > Roma
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Como > Roma
RC Lensvs.
Olympique Lyon
Last season, RC Lens was the French equivalent of Como, finishing second place and being a tough contender to even win the title until almost the very end. The SFMMO had rewarded that with giving Lens the second highest probability of winning the title this year — though, admittedly, with a large distance to PSG.
However, reality has definitely kicked in for the team from France’s North-East. Four points out of 5 games so far this season is definitely more than just a disappointment. Still, top scorer Florian Thauvin (Scoring Prob: 34%) appears to be in good shape, having already found the back of the net three times. His skills will be necessary once again on Friday when second-placed OL is in town, who have so far conceded only two goals!
Lyon is definitely in good shape this season, despite having lost one of their last season’s top forwards, Endrick, to Real Madrid and Fofana Mallick to Sunderland.
🤓 SFMMO: Who wins?
Eugene Fama would be proud: the SFMMO defies the temptation of betting on the momentum factor and makes a decisive call: Lens (43%) – OL (31%), with the 90% credible interval not overlapping! Nonetheless, this is in line with the bookmakers.
🏃 SFM: Who are the players, most likely to score?
Lens: Florian Thauvin (34%); OL: Ernest Nuamah (25%), Lois Openda (22%).
- 📣 SFM Outlook
- Lens > OL
- 📚 Bookmakers’ Outlook
- Lens > OL
Follow the SFM & SFMMO:
🌍 On the web: https://www.soccerfactormodel.com
📱 On your phone (only iPhone): https://apps.apple.com/app/id6758757755
X On twitter @ SFM_Predicts
🎮 Accept the challenge and play against the SFMMO yourself on our website!
#football #prediction #forecasting #sportsanalytics #sfm #factormodels #alpha
