SFM Tracker

Weekly Top 20 Predictions by League

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Matchday 5: Premier League (Completed Games Only)
One round — 0 graded picks. Not played yet — the boards below are the picks, still to be graded. See the full season.
SFM Top 20 Predictions
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Naive Top 20 Predictions
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No results yet. Predictions are for upcoming matches. Once games are played and results are updated, performance stats will appear here.
Premier League 2026/27 GD05 Upcoming
0 gamedays completed
History: GD01 GD02 GD03 GD04 GD05
Rank Player Team vs SFM Naive Result
1 Erling Haaland Manchester City Sunderland 63.5% 58.3% Pending
2 Alexander Isak Liverpool AFC Bournemouth 46.7% 34.4% Pending
4 Kai Havertz Arsenal Brighton & Hove Albion 36.9% 24.1% Pending
5 Bukayo Saka Arsenal Brighton & Hove Albion 36.5% 22.4% Pending
6 Dominic Calvert Lewin Leeds United Crystal Palace 34.4% 23.3% Pending
7 Joao Pedro 10 Chelsea Brentford 33.1% 26.2% Pending
8 Bruno Fernandes Manchester United Fulham 32.2% 22.0% Pending
9 Thierno Barry Everton Ipswich Town 31.8% 23.5% Pending
8 Tyrique George Everton Ipswich Town 31.4% -- Pending
10 Marcus Tavernier AFC Bournemouth Liverpool 31.3% 14.6% Pending
11 Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United Fulham 31.2% 26.8% Pending
13 Benjamin Sesko Manchester United Fulham 30.0% 33.2% Pending
15 Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Nottingham Forest Coventry City 29.8% 27.7% Pending
16 Yoane Wissa Newcastle United Hull City 29.8% 25.1% Pending
18 Morgan Gibbs White Nottingham Forest Coventry City 26.5% 16.0% Pending
19 Kiernan Dewsbury Hall Everton Ipswich Town 26.4% 22.8% Pending
15 Cole Palmer Chelsea Brentford 26.1% 33.1% Pending
14 Keane Lewis Potter Brentford Chelsea 25.6% -- Pending
17 Dan Ndoye Nottingham Forest Coventry City 24.6% 10.4% Pending
19 Vitaly Janelt Brentford Chelsea 24.4% -- Pending
18 Ollie Watkins Aston Villa Tottenham Hotspur 23.9% 33.9% Pending
SFM Tracker
Top 20 Selection

For each league and gameday, we select the 20 players with the highest median probability of scoring at least one goal as predicted by the SFM.

Frozen Predictions

Predictions are locked before matches are played. This ensures transparent, verifiable performance tracking.

Fair Comparison

We compare SFM's top 20 picks against Naive's own top 20 picks (ranked by historical average). This is apples-to-apples.

Brier Score

Evaluation metric for probabilistic predictions. Measures both calibration and discrimination. Lower is better.