Bundesliga · Matchday 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2026
Win: Schalke 04
9.2%
90% CI: 7.7–10.9
Draw
16.2%
90% CI: 14.5–18.0
Win: Bayern Munich
74.5%
90% CI: 71.1–77.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Schalke 04
xG 0.79
0
45.4%
42.3%–48.5%
1
35.8%
35.1%–36.4%
2
14.2%
12.7%–15.7%
3+
4.6%
3.7%–5.7%
Bayern Munich
xG 2.52
0
8.1%
6.6%–9.6%
1
20.3%
18.0%–22.5%
2
25.5%
24.4%–26.4%
3+
46.1%
41.5%–50.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Schalke 04, draw, Win: Bayern Munich — shaded by likelihood.
| Schalke 04 | Bayern Munich | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | Goals 9 | Goals 10 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 2.5 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 2 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.