Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Friday, September 11, 2026
Win: Union Berlin
49.2%
90% CI: 44.0–54.4
Draw
27.1%
90% CI: 25.2–28.9
Win: Schalke 04
23.8%
90% CI: 20.0–27.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Union Berlin
xG 1.52
0
21.9%
18.2%–25.8%
1
33.2%
31.0%–35.0%
2
25.2%
23.7%–26.4%
3+
19.7%
15.6%–24.3%
Schalke 04
xG 0.98
0
37.6%
33.6%–41.6%
1
36.7%
36.4%–36.8%
2
18.0%
16.0%–20.0%
3+
7.7%
5.9%–9.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Union Berlin, draw, Win: Schalke 04 — shaded by likelihood.
| Union Berlin | Schalke 04 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.