Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Borussia Dortmund
80.5%
90% CI: 74.6–85.8
Draw
13.2%
90% CI: 10.0–16.6
Win: Paderborn
6.3%
90% CI: 4.1–9.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Borussia Dortmund
xG 2.80
0
6.3%
4.0%–9.0%
1
17.2%
12.9%–21.7%
2
23.7%
20.8%–26.1%
3+
52.8%
43.2%–62.2%
Paderborn
xG 0.68
0
50.6%
43.9%–57.3%
1
34.3%
31.9%–36.1%
2
11.8%
8.9%–14.9%
3+
3.3%
1.9%–5.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Borussia Dortmund, draw, Win: Paderborn — shaded by likelihood.
| Borussia Dortmund | Paderborn | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 12.0 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 10 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.