Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Hoffenheim
43.7%
90% CI: 39.6–47.8
Draw
23.1%
90% CI: 22.2–23.9
Win: VfB Stuttgart
33.2%
90% CI: 29.5–37.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Hoffenheim
xG 1.87
0
15.4%
13.2%–17.7%
1
28.7%
26.8%–30.7%
2
26.9%
26.5%–27.1%
3+
29.0%
25.1%–33.0%
VfB Stuttgart
xG 1.62
0
19.9%
17.4%–22.5%
1
32.1%
30.4%–33.6%
2
25.9%
25.0%–26.6%
3+
22.1%
18.9%–25.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Hoffenheim, draw, Win: VfB Stuttgart — shaded by likelihood.
| Hoffenheim | VfB Stuttgart | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.