Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Freiburg
51.3%
90% CI: 47.2–55.4
Draw
24.4%
90% CI: 23.1–25.6
Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach
24.4%
90% CI: 21.3–27.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Freiburg
xG 1.79
0
16.8%
14.4%–19.2%
1
29.9%
27.9%–31.7%
2
26.7%
26.1%–27.0%
3+
26.7%
22.9%–30.6%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
xG 1.17
0
31.0%
28.1%–34.1%
1
36.3%
35.7%–36.7%
2
21.2%
19.7%–22.6%
3+
11.5%
9.5%–13.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Freiburg, draw, Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach — shaded by likelihood.
| Freiburg | Borussia Mönchengladbach | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.