Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Augsburg
33.0%
90% CI: 29.2–37.0
Draw
25.1%
90% CI: 24.1–26.0
Win: Bayer Leverkusen
41.9%
90% CI: 37.8–46.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Augsburg
xG 1.42
0
24.2%
21.1%–27.4%
1
34.3%
32.8%–35.5%
2
24.3%
23.0%–25.5%
3+
17.2%
14.2%–20.5%
Bayer Leverkusen
xG 1.62
0
19.8%
17.2%–22.4%
1
32.0%
30.3%–33.5%
2
25.9%
25.1%–26.6%
3+
22.3%
19.0%–25.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Augsburg, draw, Win: Bayer Leverkusen — shaded by likelihood.
| Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 6.2 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.