Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Mainz 05
53.6%
90% CI: 49.6–57.6
Draw
23.9%
90% CI: 22.6–25.2
Win: Eintracht Frankfurt
22.5%
90% CI: 19.6–25.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Mainz 05
xG 1.84
0
16.0%
13.7%–18.3%
1
29.2%
27.2%–31.1%
2
26.8%
26.4%–27.1%
3+
28.0%
24.2%–32.0%
Eintracht Frankfurt
xG 1.12
0
32.7%
29.7%–35.6%
1
36.5%
36.1%–36.8%
2
20.4%
19.0%–21.9%
3+
10.4%
8.6%–12.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Mainz 05, draw, Win: Eintracht Frankfurt — shaded by likelihood.
| Mainz 05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.