Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: 1. FC Köln
36.0%
90% CI: 32.2–39.8
Draw
24.4%
90% CI: 23.6–25.3
Win: Werder Bremen
39.6%
90% CI: 35.7–43.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
1. FC Köln
xG 1.56
0
21.0%
18.4%–23.7%
1
32.7%
31.1%–34.1%
2
25.5%
24.6%–26.4%
3+
20.7%
17.6%–24.1%
Werder Bremen
xG 1.65
0
19.3%
16.9%–21.8%
1
31.7%
30.1%–33.2%
2
26.1%
25.3%–26.7%
3+
22.9%
19.7%–26.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: 1. FC Köln, draw, Win: Werder Bremen — shaded by likelihood.
| 1. FC Köln | Werder Bremen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.8 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.