Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Sunday, September 13, 2026
Win: RB Leipzig
73.0%
90% CI: 69.1–77.0
Draw
17.1%
90% CI: 15.0–19.1
Win: Hamburger SV
9.9%
90% CI: 7.9–11.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
RB Leipzig
xG 2.43
0
8.9%
7.0%–10.9%
1
21.4%
18.7%–24.1%
2
25.9%
24.8%–26.8%
3+
43.7%
38.2%–49.5%
Hamburger SV
xG 0.79
0
45.4%
41.5%–49.3%
1
35.8%
34.9%–36.5%
2
14.2%
12.3%–16.0%
3+
4.6%
3.5%–5.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: RB Leipzig, draw, Win: Hamburger SV — shaded by likelihood.
| RB Leipzig | Hamburger SV | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.