Bundesliga · Matchday 3 · Sunday, September 13, 2026
Win: Elversberg
11.2%
90% CI: 2.5–24.6
Draw
16.6%
90% CI: 6.2–26.9
Win: Bayern Munich
72.1%
90% CI: 49.4–91.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Elversberg
xG 0.86
0
43.8%
25.4%–60.9%
1
34.8%
29.9%–36.8%
2
15.1%
7.5%–23.8%
3+
6.4%
1.4%–15.9%
Bayern Munich
xG 2.62
0
9.5%
1.6%–22.0%
1
20.4%
6.6%–33.3%
2
23.4%
13.7%–27.1%
3+
46.7%
19.5%–78.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Elversberg, draw, Win: Bayern Munich — shaded by likelihood.
| Elversberg | Bayern Munich | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | Goals 9 | Goals 10 | Goals 11 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.5 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 2.9 | 7.5 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.