Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Friday, October 9, 2026
Win: Borussia Dortmund
67.6%
90% CI: 64.1–70.9
Draw
18.0%
90% CI: 16.6–19.4
Win: Werder Bremen
14.5%
90% CI: 12.4–16.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Borussia Dortmund
xG 2.52
0
8.1%
6.8%–9.5%
1
20.3%
18.3%–22.4%
2
25.5%
24.6%–26.3%
3+
46.0%
41.8%–50.3%
Werder Bremen
xG 1.11
0
33.0%
30.3%–35.9%
1
36.5%
36.2%–36.8%
2
20.3%
18.8%–21.6%
3+
10.2%
8.5%–11.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Borussia Dortmund, draw, Win: Werder Bremen — shaded by likelihood.
| Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.