Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Hoffenheim
61.7%
90% CI: 57.4–65.9
Draw
20.9%
90% CI: 19.2–22.5
Win: Hamburger SV
17.4%
90% CI: 14.8–20.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Hoffenheim
xG 2.17
0
11.5%
9.6%–13.6%
1
24.8%
22.5%–27.2%
2
26.8%
26.4%–27.1%
3+
36.8%
32.1%–41.6%
Hamburger SV
xG 1.08
0
34.2%
30.9%–37.4%
1
36.6%
36.3%–36.8%
2
19.7%
18.1%–21.3%
3+
9.5%
7.7%–11.5%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Hoffenheim, draw, Win: Hamburger SV — shaded by likelihood.
| Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.