Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Augsburg
15.4%
90% CI: 13.0–17.9
Draw
20.4%
90% CI: 18.8–22.0
Win: Bayern Munich
64.2%
90% CI: 60.3–68.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Augsburg
xG 0.98
0
37.6%
34.1%–41.1%
1
36.7%
36.5%–36.8%
2
18.0%
16.2%–19.7%
3+
7.7%
6.1%–9.5%
Bayern Munich
xG 2.18
0
11.3%
9.6%–13.3%
1
24.6%
22.4%–26.8%
2
26.8%
26.3%–27.1%
3+
37.2%
32.8%–41.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Augsburg, draw, Win: Bayern Munich — shaded by likelihood.
| Augsburg | Bayern Munich | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | Goals 9 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 3.7 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.