Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Mainz 05
33.5%
90% CI: 30.1–37.1
Draw
25.1%
90% CI: 24.3–26.0
Win: Bayer Leverkusen
41.3%
90% CI: 37.7–45.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Mainz 05
xG 1.43
0
23.9%
21.3%–26.7%
1
34.2%
32.9%–35.2%
2
24.4%
23.3%–25.5%
3+
17.5%
14.8%–20.3%
Bayer Leverkusen
xG 1.61
0
20.0%
17.7%–22.5%
1
32.1%
30.6%–33.5%
2
25.9%
25.1%–26.5%
3+
22.0%
19.0%–25.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Mainz 05, draw, Win: Bayer Leverkusen — shaded by likelihood.
| Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 6.3 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.