Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Union Berlin
48.2%
90% CI: 26.2–71.5
Draw
25.0%
90% CI: 16.7–32.3
Win: Elversberg
26.8%
90% CI: 10.7–47.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Union Berlin
xG 1.67
0
21.2%
7.2%–38.4%
1
30.7%
19.0%–36.7%
2
24.1%
17.3%–27.1%
3+
23.9%
7.2%–48.8%
Elversberg
xG 1.16
0
33.4%
15.9%–51.2%
1
34.8%
29.0%–36.8%
2
19.8%
11.5%–26.7%
3+
12.0%
3.0%–28.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Union Berlin, draw, Win: Elversberg — shaded by likelihood.
| Union Berlin | Elversberg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.7 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.