Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Paderborn
23.1%
90% CI: 17.2–29.6
Draw
24.4%
90% CI: 21.9–26.7
Win: VfB Stuttgart
52.5%
90% CI: 44.7–60.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Paderborn
xG 1.11
0
33.2%
26.1%–40.3%
1
36.3%
35.1%–36.8%
2
20.2%
16.6%–23.5%
3+
10.3%
6.4%–15.3%
VfB Stuttgart
xG 1.79
0
17.0%
12.8%–21.6%
1
29.9%
26.3%–33.1%
2
26.5%
25.4%–27.1%
3+
26.6%
20.0%–33.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Paderborn, draw, Win: VfB Stuttgart — shaded by likelihood.
| Paderborn | VfB Stuttgart | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.6 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.