Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: RB Leipzig
64.9%
90% CI: 60.5–69.3
Draw
19.5%
90% CI: 17.7–21.3
Win: Eintracht Frankfurt
15.5%
90% CI: 12.8–18.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
RB Leipzig
xG 2.31
0
10.0%
8.1%–12.1%
1
23.0%
20.4%–25.5%
2
26.4%
25.6%–27.0%
3+
40.6%
35.4%–45.8%
Eintracht Frankfurt
xG 1.05
0
34.9%
31.2%–38.7%
1
36.7%
36.3%–36.8%
2
19.3%
17.4%–21.2%
3+
9.1%
7.1%–11.3%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: RB Leipzig, draw, Win: Eintracht Frankfurt — shaded by likelihood.
| RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.