Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Win: 1. FC Köln
42.1%
90% CI: 38.0–46.1
Draw
25.6%
90% CI: 24.6–26.6
Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach
32.3%
90% CI: 28.8–36.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
1. FC Köln
xG 1.58
0
20.7%
17.9%–23.5%
1
32.5%
30.8%–34.0%
2
25.6%
24.6%–26.5%
3+
21.1%
17.8%–24.8%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
xG 1.36
0
25.8%
22.9%–28.7%
1
34.9%
33.8%–35.8%
2
23.7%
22.4%–24.9%
3+
15.7%
13.1%–18.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: 1. FC Köln, draw, Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach — shaded by likelihood.
| 1. FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.