Bundesliga · Matchday 5 · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Win: Freiburg
57.5%
90% CI: 53.4–61.5
Draw
24.0%
90% CI: 22.3–25.6
Win: Schalke 04
18.5%
90% CI: 16.0–21.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Freiburg
xG 1.81
0
16.4%
14.0%–19.0%
1
29.6%
27.5%–31.6%
2
26.7%
26.2%–27.1%
3+
27.2%
23.2%–31.5%
Schalke 04
xG 0.93
0
39.5%
36.4%–42.6%
1
36.6%
36.4%–36.8%
2
17.1%
15.5%–18.6%
3+
6.8%
5.6%–8.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Freiburg, draw, Win: Schalke 04 — shaded by likelihood.
| Freiburg | Schalke 04 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.