Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Friday, October 16, 2026
Win: Eintracht Frankfurt
53.0%
90% CI: 48.9–57.1
Draw
23.4%
90% CI: 22.1–24.7
Win: 1. FC Köln
23.6%
90% CI: 20.5–26.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Eintracht Frankfurt
xG 1.90
0
15.1%
12.8%–17.4%
1
28.5%
26.3%–30.5%
2
26.9%
26.6%–27.1%
3+
29.5%
25.5%–33.8%
1. FC Köln
xG 1.20
0
30.1%
26.9%–33.2%
1
36.1%
35.3%–36.6%
2
21.7%
20.2%–23.2%
3+
12.2%
10.0%–14.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Eintracht Frankfurt, draw, Win: 1. FC Köln — shaded by likelihood.
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1. FC Köln | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.