Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Union Berlin
19.8%
90% CI: 16.3–23.7
Draw
22.9%
90% CI: 21.0–24.8
Win: Borussia Dortmund
57.2%
90% CI: 51.9–62.5
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Union Berlin
xG 1.06
0
34.7%
30.5%–39.0%
1
36.6%
36.2%–36.8%
2
19.4%
17.3%–21.5%
3+
9.2%
7.0%–11.8%
Borussia Dortmund
xG 1.94
0
14.5%
11.8%–17.4%
1
27.9%
25.2%–30.5%
2
26.9%
26.6%–27.1%
3+
30.7%
25.5%–36.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Union Berlin, draw, Win: Borussia Dortmund — shaded by likelihood.
| Union Berlin | Borussia Dortmund | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.6 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 4.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.