Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Hamburger SV
29.2%
90% CI: 25.8–32.6
Draw
25.5%
90% CI: 24.5–26.6
Win: VfB Stuttgart
45.3%
90% CI: 41.3–49.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Hamburger SV
xG 1.27
0
28.3%
25.3%–31.2%
1
35.7%
34.8%–36.3%
2
22.6%
21.2%–23.9%
3+
13.5%
11.3%–16.0%
VfB Stuttgart
xG 1.63
0
19.7%
17.1%–22.3%
1
31.9%
30.2%–33.5%
2
26.0%
25.1%–26.7%
3+
22.5%
19.1%–26.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Hamburger SV, draw, Win: VfB Stuttgart — shaded by likelihood.
| Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 6.4 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.