Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Werder Bremen
66.7%
90% CI: 59.4–73.9
Draw
19.4%
90% CI: 16.2–22.5
Win: Paderborn
13.9%
90% CI: 9.7–18.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Werder Bremen
xG 2.27
0
10.5%
7.3%–14.1%
1
23.5%
19.1%–27.6%
2
26.4%
25.0%–27.1%
3+
39.6%
31.2%–48.5%
Paderborn
xG 0.94
0
39.2%
32.1%–46.4%
1
36.5%
35.6%–36.8%
2
17.2%
13.7%–20.7%
3+
7.1%
4.3%–10.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Werder Bremen, draw, Win: Paderborn — shaded by likelihood.
| Werder Bremen | Paderborn | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.