Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Schalke 04
33.7%
90% CI: 30.1–37.4
Draw
27.4%
90% CI: 26.4–28.4
Win: Mainz 05
38.8%
90% CI: 35.0–42.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Schalke 04
xG 1.26
0
28.4%
25.4%–31.3%
1
35.7%
34.8%–36.4%
2
22.5%
21.1%–23.8%
3+
13.5%
11.2%–15.9%
Mainz 05
xG 1.37
0
25.4%
22.4%–28.5%
1
34.7%
33.5%–35.8%
2
23.8%
22.5%–25.1%
3+
16.0%
13.3%–19.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Schalke 04, draw, Win: Mainz 05 — shaded by likelihood.
| Schalke 04 | Mainz 05 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | |||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.