Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Elversberg
30.6%
90% CI: 13.1–52.1
Draw
25.7%
90% CI: 18.3–32.7
Win: Augsburg
43.7%
90% CI: 22.5–67.1
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Elversberg
xG 1.24
0
31.1%
14.1%–49.0%
1
34.4%
27.5%–36.8%
2
20.7%
12.5%–26.9%
3+
13.7%
3.6%–31.3%
Augsburg
xG 1.55
0
23.6%
8.7%–41.2%
1
32.0%
21.3%–36.8%
2
23.5%
16.2%–27.0%
3+
20.9%
6.1%–44.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Elversberg, draw, Win: Augsburg — shaded by likelihood.
| Elversberg | Augsburg | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.