Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Win: Bayern Munich
62.6%
90% CI: 57.9–67.2
Draw
20.1%
90% CI: 18.3–21.9
Win: RB Leipzig
17.2%
90% CI: 14.3–20.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Bayern Munich
xG 2.27
0
10.4%
8.3%–12.7%
1
23.5%
20.7%–26.2%
2
26.5%
25.7%–27.0%
3+
39.6%
34.0%–45.2%
RB Leipzig
xG 1.12
0
32.6%
29.1%–36.0%
1
36.5%
35.9%–36.8%
2
20.5%
18.8%–22.2%
3+
10.5%
8.4%–12.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Bayern Munich, draw, Win: RB Leipzig — shaded by likelihood.
| Bayern Munich | RB Leipzig | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 1 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.