Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sunday, October 18, 2026
Win: Bayer Leverkusen
60.1%
90% CI: 56.4–63.8
Draw
21.2%
90% CI: 19.8–22.5
Win: Freiburg
18.7%
90% CI: 16.3–21.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Bayer Leverkusen
xG 2.15
0
11.7%
10.0%–13.6%
1
25.1%
23.0%–27.1%
2
26.9%
26.5%–27.1%
3+
36.3%
32.2%–40.6%
Freiburg
xG 1.13
0
32.4%
29.3%–35.5%
1
36.5%
36.0%–36.8%
2
20.6%
19.1%–22.1%
3+
10.6%
8.7%–12.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Bayer Leverkusen, draw, Win: Freiburg — shaded by likelihood.
| Bayer Leverkusen | Freiburg | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.