Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sunday, October 18, 2026
Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach
39.5%
90% CI: 35.7–43.3
Draw
23.4%
90% CI: 22.6–24.3
Win: Hoffenheim
37.1%
90% CI: 33.4–40.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
xG 1.75
0
17.4%
15.1%–19.8%
1
30.4%
28.6%–32.1%
2
26.6%
26.0%–27.0%
3+
25.7%
22.1%–29.3%
Hoffenheim
xG 1.70
0
18.4%
15.9%–21.0%
1
31.1%
29.3%–32.8%
2
26.3%
25.6%–26.9%
3+
24.2%
20.6%–27.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Borussia Mönchengladbach, draw, Win: Hoffenheim — shaded by likelihood.
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hoffenheim | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.1 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.9 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.