Premier League · Matchday 3 · Sunday, September 6, 2026
Win: Arsenal
53.2%
90% CI: 49.5–56.9
Draw
24.2%
90% CI: 22.9–25.4
Win: Chelsea
22.6%
90% CI: 20.0–25.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Arsenal
xG 1.81
0
16.4%
14.3%–18.6%
1
29.6%
27.8%–31.3%
2
26.8%
26.3%–27.0%
3+
27.3%
23.8%–30.9%
Chelsea
xG 1.11
0
33.0%
30.2%–35.7%
1
36.5%
36.2%–36.8%
2
20.3%
18.9%–21.6%
3+
10.2%
8.6%–12.0%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Arsenal, draw, Win: Chelsea — shaded by likelihood.
| Arsenal | Chelsea | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.2 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.