Premier League · Matchday 4 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: AFC Bournemouth
39.2%
90% CI: 33.2–45.3
Draw
25.4%
90% CI: 24.0–26.8
Win: Brentford
35.4%
90% CI: 29.8–41.2
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
AFC Bournemouth
xG 1.54
0
21.5%
17.4%–25.9%
1
32.9%
30.5%–35.0%
2
25.3%
23.6%–26.6%
3+
20.3%
15.5%–25.5%
Brentford
xG 1.46
0
23.4%
19.4%–27.6%
1
33.9%
31.8%–35.5%
2
24.6%
22.9%–26.1%
3+
18.1%
14.0%–22.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: AFC Bournemouth, draw, Win: Brentford — shaded by likelihood.
| AFC Bournemouth | Brentford | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.