Premier League · Matchday 4 · Monday, September 14, 2026
Win: Leeds United
39.6%
90% CI: 35.0–44.4
Draw
26.0%
90% CI: 24.8–27.1
Win: Newcastle United
34.4%
90% CI: 30.0–38.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Leeds United
xG 1.50
0
22.3%
19.0%–25.8%
1
33.4%
31.5%–35.0%
2
25.0%
23.7%–26.2%
3+
19.2%
15.5%–23.3%
Newcastle United
xG 1.39
0
25.1%
21.8%–28.6%
1
34.6%
33.2%–35.8%
2
23.9%
22.4%–25.3%
3+
16.3%
13.2%–19.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Leeds United, draw, Win: Newcastle United — shaded by likelihood.
| Leeds United | Newcastle United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.8 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.