Premier League · Matchday 4 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Aston Villa
40.4%
90% CI: 35.0–46.0
Draw
27.9%
90% CI: 26.4–29.5
Win: Nottingham Forest
31.6%
90% CI: 26.7–36.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Aston Villa
xG 1.36
0
25.7%
21.6%–30.1%
1
34.8%
33.1%–36.1%
2
23.7%
21.7%–25.4%
3+
15.8%
12.1%–20.0%
Nottingham Forest
xG 1.17
0
31.0%
26.2%–35.9%
1
36.2%
35.1%–36.8%
2
21.2%
18.8%–23.5%
3+
11.6%
8.5%–15.2%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Aston Villa, draw, Win: Nottingham Forest — shaded by likelihood.
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 10.1 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 7.3 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.