Premier League · Matchday 4 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Chelsea
71.5%
90% CI: 66.4–76.3
Draw
18.6%
90% CI: 16.0–21.2
Win: Hull City
10.0%
90% CI: 7.6–12.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Chelsea
xG 2.22
0
11.0%
8.5%–13.7%
1
24.1%
21.0%–27.2%
2
26.7%
25.8%–27.1%
3+
38.2%
32.1%–44.7%
Hull City
xG 0.70
0
49.6%
44.7%–54.4%
1
34.7%
33.1%–36.0%
2
12.2%
10.1%–14.5%
3+
3.5%
2.4%–4.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Chelsea, draw, Win: Hull City — shaded by likelihood.
| Chelsea | Hull City | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 1 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Goals 5 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.