Premier League · Matchday 4 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Crystal Palace
62.2%
90% CI: 54.7–69.5
Draw
21.9%
90% CI: 18.6–25.0
Win: Ipswich Town
15.9%
90% CI: 11.5–20.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Crystal Palace
xG 2.00
0
13.7%
9.8%–18.1%
1
27.0%
22.8%–30.9%
2
26.8%
26.2%–27.1%
3+
32.5%
24.5%–41.0%
Ipswich Town
xG 0.91
0
40.5%
33.7%–47.3%
1
36.4%
35.4%–36.8%
2
16.6%
13.2%–19.9%
3+
6.6%
4.0%–9.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Crystal Palace, draw, Win: Ipswich Town — shaded by likelihood.
| Crystal Palace | Ipswich Town | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.