Premier League · Matchday 4 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Liverpool
65.7%
90% CI: 62.3–69.2
Draw
20.7%
90% CI: 19.1–22.2
Win: Fulham
13.6%
90% CI: 11.7–15.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Liverpool
xG 2.09
0
12.4%
10.6%–14.2%
1
25.8%
23.8%–27.7%
2
27.0%
26.7%–27.1%
3+
34.8%
31.1%–38.8%
Fulham
xG 0.84
0
43.1%
39.9%–46.2%
1
36.2%
35.7%–36.7%
2
15.3%
13.8%–16.9%
3+
5.4%
4.3%–6.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Liverpool, draw, Win: Fulham — shaded by likelihood.
| Liverpool | Fulham | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.