Premier League · Matchday 4 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Tottenham Hotspur
40.1%
90% CI: 37.0–43.3
Draw
27.9%
90% CI: 27.0–28.7
Win: Everton
32.0%
90% CI: 29.1–35.0
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Tottenham Hotspur
xG 1.36
0
25.6%
23.3%–28.0%
1
34.9%
33.9%–35.7%
2
23.7%
22.7%–24.7%
3+
15.8%
13.6%–18.0%
Everton
xG 1.19
0
30.4%
27.7%–33.1%
1
36.2%
35.6%–36.6%
2
21.5%
20.2%–22.8%
3+
11.9%
10.1%–13.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Tottenham Hotspur, draw, Win: Everton — shaded by likelihood.
| Tottenham Hotspur | Everton | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 9.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.