Premier League · Matchday 4 · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Win: Sunderland
17.7%
90% CI: 15.4–20.2
Draw
24.7%
90% CI: 23.1–26.1
Win: Arsenal
57.6%
90% CI: 53.8–61.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Sunderland
xG 0.86
0
42.5%
39.1%–45.9%
1
36.3%
35.7%–36.7%
2
15.6%
13.9%–17.3%
3+
5.6%
4.4%–7.0%
Arsenal
xG 1.74
0
17.7%
15.4%–20.0%
1
30.6%
28.8%–32.2%
2
26.5%
25.9%–26.9%
3+
25.3%
21.9%–28.8%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Sunderland, draw, Win: Arsenal — shaded by likelihood.
| Sunderland | Arsenal | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.1 | 12.4 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 5.8 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.