Premier League · Matchday 4 · Sunday, September 13, 2026
Win: Coventry City
22.7%
90% CI: 8.3–42.1
Draw
24.8%
90% CI: 15.3–32.9
Win: Brighton & Hove Albion
52.4%
90% CI: 29.5–75.6
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Coventry City
xG 1.01
0
38.1%
20.0%–56.3%
1
35.1%
30.6%–36.8%
2
17.7%
9.3%–25.9%
3+
9.1%
2.1%–22.0%
Brighton & Hove Albion
xG 1.72
0
20.4%
6.6%–37.5%
1
30.2%
18.0%–36.7%
2
24.3%
17.7%–27.1%
3+
25.2%
7.7%–50.9%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Coventry City, draw, Win: Brighton & Hove Albion — shaded by likelihood.
| Coventry City | Brighton & Hove Albion | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | Goals 9 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.