Premier League · Matchday 4 · Sunday, September 13, 2026
Win: Manchester United
38.9%
90% CI: 35.4–42.3
Draw
26.3%
90% CI: 25.5–27.1
Win: Manchester City
34.8%
90% CI: 31.6–38.3
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Manchester United
xG 1.46
0
23.2%
20.8%–25.7%
1
33.8%
32.6%–34.9%
2
24.8%
23.7%–25.7%
3+
18.2%
15.7%–20.9%
Manchester City
xG 1.37
0
25.4%
22.8%–28.0%
1
34.7%
33.7%–35.6%
2
23.8%
22.7%–24.9%
3+
16.0%
13.7%–18.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Manchester United, draw, Win: Manchester City — shaded by likelihood.
| Manchester United | Manchester City | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.0 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.