Premier League · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Arsenal
68.0%
90% CI: 63.5–72.3
Draw
18.9%
90% CI: 16.9–21.0
Win: Leeds United
13.0%
90% CI: 10.6–15.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Arsenal
xG 2.31
0
10.0%
8.0%–12.2%
1
23.0%
20.3%–25.7%
2
26.4%
25.5%–27.0%
3+
40.6%
35.1%–46.2%
Leeds United
xG 0.92
0
40.0%
36.0%–44.0%
1
36.6%
36.1%–36.8%
2
16.8%
14.8%–18.8%
3+
6.6%
5.0%–8.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Arsenal, draw, Win: Leeds United — shaded by likelihood.
| Arsenal | Leeds United | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | |
| Goals 0 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Goals 3 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 5 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.