Premier League · Matchday 6 · Monday, October 12, 2026
Win: Coventry City
25.7%
90% CI: 10.0–46.1
Draw
25.1%
90% CI: 16.6–32.6
Win: Newcastle United
49.3%
90% CI: 27.0–72.7
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Coventry City
xG 1.11
0
34.8%
17.1%–52.9%
1
35.0%
29.8%–36.8%
2
19.1%
10.7%–26.5%
3+
11.0%
2.7%–26.1%
Newcastle United
xG 1.67
0
21.1%
7.3%–38.0%
1
30.7%
19.1%–36.7%
2
24.2%
17.6%–27.0%
3+
24.0%
7.4%–48.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Coventry City, draw, Win: Newcastle United — shaded by likelihood.
| Coventry City | Newcastle United | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | Goals 8 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.