Premier League · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Aston Villa
34.0%
90% CI: 29.1–39.0
Draw
26.6%
90% CI: 25.3–27.9
Win: Brentford
39.5%
90% CI: 34.3–44.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Aston Villa
xG 1.33
0
26.6%
22.7%–30.6%
1
35.1%
33.7%–36.2%
2
23.3%
21.4%–25.0%
3+
15.0%
11.7%–18.7%
Brentford
xG 1.45
0
23.6%
19.8%–27.6%
1
33.9%
32.1%–35.5%
2
24.6%
22.9%–26.0%
3+
17.9%
14.0%–22.1%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Aston Villa, draw, Win: Brentford — shaded by likelihood.
| Aston Villa | Brentford | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.6 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||||
| Goals 7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.