Premier League · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Chelsea
56.7%
90% CI: 52.1–61.4
Draw
22.8%
90% CI: 21.2–24.3
Win: AFC Bournemouth
20.5%
90% CI: 17.2–23.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Chelsea
xG 1.96
0
14.2%
11.9%–16.6%
1
27.7%
25.3%–29.8%
2
27.0%
26.7%–27.1%
3+
31.2%
26.7%–35.9%
AFC Bournemouth
xG 1.10
0
33.3%
29.6%–37.1%
1
36.5%
36.0%–36.8%
2
20.1%
18.2%–21.9%
3+
10.0%
7.9%–12.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Chelsea, draw, Win: AFC Bournemouth — shaded by likelihood.
| Chelsea | AFC Bournemouth | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.