Premier League · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Ipswich Town
27.9%
90% CI: 21.6–34.8
Draw
26.8%
90% CI: 24.7–28.9
Win: Fulham
45.3%
90% CI: 37.8–52.8
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Ipswich Town
xG 1.13
0
32.4%
25.9%–39.3%
1
36.3%
35.0%–36.8%
2
20.5%
17.2%–23.6%
3+
10.8%
6.9%–15.5%
Fulham
xG 1.51
0
22.3%
17.4%–27.4%
1
33.2%
30.4%–35.5%
2
25.0%
23.0%–26.6%
3+
19.5%
14.2%–25.6%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Ipswich Town, draw, Win: Fulham — shaded by likelihood.
| Ipswich Town | Fulham | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.4 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.