Premier League · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Sunderland
25.6%
90% CI: 21.7–29.7
Draw
27.0%
90% CI: 25.4–28.6
Win: Brighton & Hove Albion
47.3%
90% CI: 42.3–52.4
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Sunderland
xG 1.05
0
35.2%
31.0%–39.4%
1
36.7%
36.3%–36.8%
2
19.2%
17.1%–21.3%
3+
9.0%
6.8%–11.4%
Brighton & Hove Albion
xG 1.51
0
22.1%
18.6%–25.8%
1
33.3%
31.3%–34.9%
2
25.1%
23.7%–26.3%
3+
19.5%
15.6%–23.7%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Sunderland, draw, Win: Brighton & Hove Albion — shaded by likelihood.
| Sunderland | Brighton & Hove Albion | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | Goals 7 | |
| Goals 0 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 1 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.