Premier League · Matchday 6 · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Win: Manchester United
61.1%
90% CI: 57.8–64.3
Draw
22.2%
90% CI: 20.8–23.5
Win: Tottenham Hotspur
16.8%
90% CI: 14.8–18.9
Figures are posterior means with 90% credible intervals.
Note: the most likely exact scoreline need not match the most likely result — e.g. 1–1 can
top the grid even when one side has more total ways to win.
Marginal Distributions: Goals
The number of goals each side scores — the marginal distributions that the scoreline grid below combines into a joint distribution.
Manchester United
xG 1.99
0
13.7%
11.9%–15.6%
1
27.2%
25.3%–28.9%
2
27.0%
26.9%–27.1%
3+
32.1%
28.6%–35.8%
Tottenham Hotspur
xG 0.95
0
38.8%
36.0%–41.5%
1
36.7%
36.5%–36.8%
2
17.4%
16.0%–18.8%
3+
7.1%
5.9%–8.4%
Scoreline Probabilities
Each cell is the probability of that exact full-time score. Hover a cell for its 90% credible interval. Colour shows the result — Win: Manchester United, draw, Win: Tottenham Hotspur — shaded by likelihood.
| Manchester United | Tottenham Hotspur | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals 0 | Goals 1 | Goals 2 | Goals 3 | Goals 4 | Goals 5 | Goals 6 | |
| Goals 0 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 1 | 10.0 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Goals 3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| Goals 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | ||
| Goals 7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |||
| Goals 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||
Grid covers scores up to 5–5; cells need not sum to 100% (rare higher scores fall outside the grid). The outlined cell is the most-likely scoreline.